Thursday Commodities and Currencies
Disclaimer: All charts and comments are intended for education and discussion purposes only. No investment recommendations are being offered. Please do your own research and take responsibility for all investment decisions that you make. Questions and comments related to this post are encouraged. | MON - Sector Strength | TUE - Interest Rates | WED - Market Breadth | THU - Commodities & Currencies | FRI - Market Sentiment | SAT - Bullish Percents | About | contact: HeadlineCharts@gmail.com |
Boone Pickens made an appearance today on TV and said he thought the weak economy couldn't support $100 oil. He just wanted to warn all the viewers, yeah right. So what was his motive? He said he was short oil, so maybe he was trying to talk down prices so he could cover. Or maybe he was talking down prices so he could add to long positions at lower prices.
The commodity traders's sentiment survey doesn't point in the same direction as the trend in commodity prices. Are commodity prices setting up for a big fall? Or is the surge in prices for real? The survey and the weak economy say no, but the weak US Dollar, low rates and secular uptrend say yes.
Market Vane is a sentiment survey of commodity futures advisors, and is used by futures traders. The survey result can be obtained for free via Investmenttools. The publisher states that it should be used as an indication of the current short-term trend, with the idea that investments in commodity futures should be in line with the trend.
How long can these two indexes move in opposite directions? Check out these comments from Kevin Kerr.
"The perfect storm for oil prices seems to be upon the markets, and a chill is blowing down Wall Street. Oil surged late in the day to settle at an all-time record of $100.01. The old saying the 'cure for high prices is high prices' does not seem to be holding much water. The cure for high prices may just be higher prices, and that means higher prices for everything. Forget about the notion of Peak Oil or Peak Food; try Peak Everything! That's right, what if all of the resources on the planet are actually peaking out right now? As global population booms and borders are busting at the seams, we may just have reached capacity. Some scientists believe this is fact, not fiction. From higher prices for staple grains and meats to fights over water rights and cleaner air, the world is more crowded now than ever before. The solutions, if there are any, are not easy and by no means are they cheap." [Market Watch Feb-20-2008]
