Tuesday Interest Rates and the US Dollar
Disclaimer: All charts and comments are intended for education and discussion purposes only. No investment recommendations are being offered. Please do your own research and take responsibility for all investment decisions that you make. Questions and comments related to this post are encouraged. | MON - Sector Strength | TUE - Interest Rates | WED - Market Breadth | THU - Commodities & Currencies | FRI - Market Sentiment | SAT - Bullish Percents | About | contact: HeadlineCharts@gmail.com |
If you are in a panic about oil and gasoline prices, I'm with you. I know we all have to adjust to higher and higher energy prices ahead, but things are getting a little out of control. The short-term overbought condition of the market combined with these higher energy prices is not helping the uptrend.
My free short-term subscription to Trim Tabs is close to running out, and I don't have the $50,000 it takes to be a subscriber. But I just got an email notice today that they are getting close to going to all cash after just saying two days ago they were considering going 100% long. Now that's a whipsaw! Apparently tax receipts have declined to a level where the anemic .5% growth is probably down around 0%.
Adding to the concern is that Ken Tower went to a short-term sell this morning before the open... good call per usual. He doesn't like the complacency showing up in the put/call ratio among other things. So it may be time to consider hedging some positions.
Too early to panic though if you are strictly a chart reader and don't drive a car or read investment advice. The failure of the SPX just under the 200-day can't be a surprise to anyone, and we have had a very nice short-term run which could easily use two or three weeks to consolidate. Combine this with the sell-in-May nerves, etc., and today's selling makes sense.
The new highs remain above the 50-level and the new lows don't reveal a lot of underlying, hidden weakness ... at least not in the NYSE. And the bullish percent held nicely. Based on these indicators, I'm not seeing the start of some big turn in the market. I must admit though, that Trim Tabs report has me a bit concerned.
Rates look like they are headed higher to me. I may invest in a bear bond fund when this MACD hits the low which may be near the 4.4% level.
